Posted by
Chris Rawlings on Friday, July 14, 2006 3:47:07 PM
Amazingly, there is nothing terribly significant to report from the Middle East. Israel continues to cripple Hezballah infrastructure while the Iranian-backed terrorists continue to threaten and shell northern Israeli towns. A grandmother and her grandson were killed earlier in a northern Israeli kibbutz. There are, though, two notable developments.
1. Hezballah claims they can reach south of Jerusalem with rockets:
Israel believes Hezbollah has missiles that can hit most of Israel, and which could even strike Be'er Sheva under optimum conditions.
Iran supplied Hezbollah with solid-fuel, Zelzal-2 missiles with a 200-km range, but these are not very accurate, since they do not have a self-guidance system. (Haaretz).
This is significant mainly because Tel Aviv, the political, geographical, and demographic heart of Israel, is well within reach.
2. Olmert is not really serious about this whole thing:
Sources in Jerusalem stated Thursday that as a condition for a cease-fire, Israel would demand that Hezbollah outposts be removed from the Israel-Lebanon border and that a buffer zone be created on the Lebanese side of the border. According to the sources, the aim of Operation Just Reward is to alter the balance of power between Israel and Hezbollah. (Haaretz).
Olmert clearly does not want to go into Syria or beyond. This may mean, simply, that it needs to cripple Hizballah and Lebanon before taking care of the ultimate root of the problem (located somewhere between Damascus and Lebanon). Or it may mean that Olmert is weak. Or less likely, though possible, he doesn't have the political capital (much of the same reasoning goes into the debate about a US military operation in Iran). Israel has played games like this for quite some time. When finally, will it get the guts to go straight to the source? The Israelis may need some help from America if Iran is involved, but Syria should not be so fearsome. This weekend, particularly tonight and tomorrow's Jewish sabbath, will prove most telling (big things always happen in Israel on holy days--Yom Kippur war, Ilan Ramon's death over the skies of Texas etc.). If Israel seems to be backing down by Sunday, chalk this up as a big win for Baby Assad and Tehran's Son of Zertzie.