It's no longer a secret that polls, especially election polls, are largely wide guesstimations into the minds of voters.  Come on.  Two years after 52% of the American electorate voted for President Bush, he's now in the mid-30s for job approval?  Common sense and some political savy would tell us that he's probably not at 52%, but it's unlikely that he's lower than the mid-40s.  Denver Post columnist Fred Brown has a theory as to why polls are so transparently bad.

What it all comes down to is that if you are a Republican and are reading all of the dire estimates about the imminent GOP downfall: lighten up a bit.  The pollsters don't know and even they admit that the one thing they simple cannot project, is turnout and activism among constituents.  In other words, if conservatives show up in November and work hard before then, given just how silly the Democrats have become, there is no real reason that the GOP cannot blow the Dems out of the water.  If you talk to voters, most are just as discontented as they were in '04, and they're just as mystified at liberal looniness, too.